R Hoffman
Mann Creek Information Technologies, LLC
|
http://www.manncrk.com |
rh@manncrk.com |
|
My History with Modeling, Simulators and Simulations
Deterministic and stochastic modeling and analysis have been a large part of my professional life. Deterministic, linear /
non-linear structural finite element modeling and analysis came first, followed more recently by stochastic business and IT modeling and analysis.
To achieve quality results with either model type, many of the same developmental and analytical principals apply -- though stochastic
applications obviously require an additional probability and statistics knowledge. See Notes on Systems Modeling for more general modeling substance and
Probability and Statistics Notes
for additional information on the technical side of stochastic modeling. For dial-up connection speeds, these documents may
take several minutes to download. The figure at left presents my overview of
model-driven design/analysis, a superset of simulation design/analysis. See the glossary for definitions
of Analysis, Domain and
Modeling Experts.
More specifically, my deterministic modeling and analysis has been in the area of discrete/static/deterministic (an explicit numerical
solution technique, reference figure at right) -- structural modeling and analysis that involved both linear and non-linear material properties
(e.g. aluminum/steel and fiberglass/Kevlar), and small and large displacements (e.g. stresses/strains from discrete wind loads and bifurcation
buckling patterns). In the aerospace industry, analyses were of spacecraft and missile components; in the offshore industry, analyses
involved large tubular joint intersections and other offshore structure component parts. Significant deterministic modeling accomplishments are (a)
formulating and implementing an aposteriori finite element error estimate technique and (b) developing and releasing to the general public an interactive,
finite element modeling and post-processing environment.
My stochastic experience has been in the discrete&continuous/dynamic/stochastic area (also an explicit numerical solution
technique, reference figure at right2 and Notes on Systems Modeling) -- business process modeling and analysis that has included process cost optimization, resource interaction and utilization, and technical server coordination, throughput estimation and bottleneck determination.
These stochastic models help upper and middle management have confidence in resource, budget and technical equipment forecasting for
projected customer loads (e.g., reference the "General IT Architecture" results-summary figure at the left and
the associated General IT Architecture
model explanation).